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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.