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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still