Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.